The Academy love Actors that cry. I have not seen Tinker Tailor so I do not know if Gary Oldman cries, but I do know the rest do. Anyway here is a list of the Best Actor nominees and their chances of winning.
Demián Bichir, A Better Life-Not a chance. Bichir is good in this roll and he does cry, but I do not know how it is better than Ryan Gosling in Drive or Micheal Fassbender in Shame. The film itself is OK, but pretty cook cutter for this genre.
George Clooney, The Descendants-I think that we all assumed Clooney was the front-runner until Dujardin won the Golden Globe. The is the best role Clooney has had to date and he cries. He is definitely the runner-up and if Dujardin does not get the Oscar, Clooney will.
Jean Dujardin, The Artist-He is the front runner at this point. Everyone loved his Golden Globe acceptance speech and would like to give him the opportunity to do it again on Oscar night. This role could have been a disaster, but Dujardin plays it perfectly. He is overacting in just the right way without over doing it. He looks exactly like an actor from a film in 1927.
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy-At this time I have not seen this movie yet. It good to see Oldman get a well overdo nomination. The competition is too strong this year for him to win.
Brad Pitt, Moneyball-Just like Clooney, this is Pitt's best performance ever. He is so natural, it doesn't look like acting. He was the front runner for awhile last year and he deserves a nomination. Not the win.