Here are my current picks for a Best Actress nomination:
-Annette Bening-THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT*
-Jennifer Lawrence-WINTER'S BONE*
-Natalie Portman-BLACK SWAN
-Lesley Manville-ANOTHER YEAR
-Julianne Moore-THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT*
This is a tough list to predict. Bening, Lawrence and Portman are a pretty good bet for a nomination. Manville did get a National Board of Review award and Moore is great in THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT. Lawrence is also getting a lot of attention. Right now I would predict Annette Bening as the winner, but it will become more clear when I see more of the films.
*films I have seen
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