This is a tough one so early in the game. I can only go by the word from the festivals because most of the films have not been released yet, but here is my best guess so far:
Alexander Payne-THE DESCENDANTS
Woody Allen-MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
David Fincher-THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
If MONEYBALL does well and continues to get good reviews, Bennett Miller could also make the cut. Michel Hazanavicius could very well get a nomination for THE ARTIST if there is an audience for a black and white silent film.